As a group, the DJUBS commodities index which I think may have a higher weighting of agriculture and metals than energy relative other and perhaps more famous indexes, is due
The business cycle model concept caused an opinion to turn bullish stocks in 2009 and to remain so until 2017-2019. Correct so far. This relative a 9yr cycle. The 9yr
A PDF report about the economy and the stock market. Nearby and long term. Economy and Stock Market
Video- Stock market
As a group, the DJUBS commodities index which I think may have a higher weighting of agriculture and metals than energy relative other and perhaps more famous indexes, is due for a 9yr cycle bottom last placed with 2001 recession. The 2009 recession and financial crisis commodities bottom was an over reaction and not the true marketplace. The true marketplace however was bearish from either 2008 or 2011 (or2012 for drought based corn) and that trend persisted into 2013. I believe this cycle bottoms now.
Although this suggests a bull market until 2017-2019 and alongside the economies and the stock market, I feel that investors would be better off by trading increments as the trend may be very wide and difficult to stay with.
As component of the 9yr cycle, the 3yr cycle should be up from 2013 into 2014 and for some markets may persist until 2015. This cycle trend, at least for a portion of 2014, could be of manageable trend channel spread for a long term trade. But also prefer taking incremental trends during a year. L1/L2 trends as offered by the Posson Report at www.ag-financial.com.
It is time for commodities to catch up with growing global and US economies. Palm oil futures US already show some leading strength while US soyoil marks time.
Business cycles are how we do business in a repetitive time based and trend manner characteristic. Business is done short term, intermediate term, long term. And super cycles offer society, economy, and monetary influence for still larger trends of price.
The business cycle model concept caused an opinion to turn bullish stocks in 2009 and to remain so until 2017-2019. Correct so far. This relative a 9yr cycle. The 9yr cycle relative the economy is one when there is net growth for 7 to 12 years then 1 to 3 years of recession. A correction.
The same model concept relative a 3yr cycle created a bullish stance in 2011 for the stock market. No change. Trend is intact, still up, but keep in touch in that what for 2014.
Recent news and business statistics including weak consumer confidence in summary supports the model script. Consumer confidence is normally soft during fall months.
By some measurements investors were more bearish the stock market during 2012/2013 than during 2008/2009 the crash. Guess many missed out! They should have followed business cycles.
Be cautious of those touting a 1999 bubble again for Nasdaq stock index. Some in the trade correctly pointed out no comparison at this time. P/E,P/B,P/S, and Shiller P/E were cited.
And some time ago I stated that relative stock index to nominal GDP per capita the two highest ratio were in the 1920s before the crash and 1999. We have a way to go to achieve such over enthusiastic characteristic!
A PDF report about the economy and the stock market. Nearby and long term.
A video about hedge fund and CTA/managed futures performance/growth and near the end a brief comment of wine, art, diamonds. Alternative investment for the total portfolio. No longer stocks and bonds only.
A video from the Posson Report ag-financial.com about the long term and super long term cycles of US real estate.
Dow Jones REIT index may have recently placed long term 3yr cycle bottom.
Cash real estate relative a 9yr major long term business cycle should be bullish until years 2017-2019.
Recently a surge of information suggesting lower supply and higher demand for wine while price remains neutral to lower. Best guess cycle stance is that price can improve along side growing economies this decade, but no evidence for a major bull market.
Supports business cycle model long term macro bullish economy outlook. Growing US and global economies into 2014. May see a slump late 2014, but then still faster paced growth 2015-2017.
Still long term bullish stocks, but as always, there will be corrections, headwinds at times.
But with any analysis/opinion, frequently ask -what might go wrong.